There is an arms race between those who are trying to stop filesharing/downloading and the downloaders; and so far, the downloaders are winning.
Much of the political pressure from rightsholders is focused on outlawing the mechanisms used by downloaders. I have heard rightsholder spokespeople claiming that BitTorrent, for example, is used only for file-sharing, denying that it has any legitimate uses. I first used BitTorrent to download big Linux isos, entirely lawfully, at the behest of the distributor, to avoid overloading their servers. Whatever, BitTorrent is now firmly established as the protocol of choice for downloading/filesharing.
The current proposals from Carter suggest that rightsholders will identify the IP addresses of those who are unlawfully sharing content, and get ISPs to notify them. If the unlawful activity doesn’t stop, then the ISPs can – even now – be forced to disclose the contact details associated with that IP address so that the rightsholder can serve legal papers on them. So how, then, do rightsholders find out these IP addresses? It’s actually straightforward: they appoint agents to find them for them. The agents typically browse sites like Mininova and The Pirate Bay and find places where the content is being offered. They will obtain a .torrent file, and join the BitTorrent swarm, from which they can identify the “seed” – the IP address of a swarm member who has the entire file. This is usually the IP address they will target for notification under the current system. They may also target anyone hosting a .torrent file, which – although it doesn’t contain any infringing content, contains enough information to put the copy together. But mostly, they will go for the torrent “seed”.
Encryption, and virtual private networks like The Pirate Bay’s proposed IPREDator service, don’t actually offer that much protection. The snoops will join the private network like anyone else trying to obtain a downloaded file, and they will get the IP addresss from inside the encrypted network. But anonymising routers do solve the problem for downloaders.
TOR (The Onion Router) is an anonymising router which helps people who need to browse the web anonymously do so. Anonymous browsing is essential for freedom of speech, and TOR is widely used to help people operating under restrictive regimes access the wider world. A user in China can access sites blocked by the Great Firewall using TOR. But you can also use TOR for BitTorrent, and if – as a seed – you make a file unlawfully available via TOR – there is no way your IP address will be picked up. Some anonymous person who also uses TOR will find their IP address will appear to the swarm.
BitBlinder is a combined BitTorrent client/anonymising router. BitBlinder pretty comprehensively defeats the Carter proposals for enforcement; and if people want to continue to share files unlawfully, BitBlinder will be widely used. Oh and it also has a lot of legitimate uses, although it (unlike Tor and BitTorrent itself) it seems to have been designed specifically with copyright infringement in mind. It is quite possible that legal and technical ways will be found to defeat BitBlinder, but it will take time, and by the time that happens, the world will have moved on and there will be other techniques.
Arms races happen when there’s a cold war. People of my generation grew up under the threat of imminent nuclear annihilation as the USA and the USSR engaged in a nuclear arms race. That race ground to a halt, thankfully, when the cold war ended – but there’s another couple of nasty nuclear arms races going on between Israel and Iran and between Pakistan and India. The arms race between downloaders and rightsholders is also driven by a cold war. There’s no love lost between the two sides. In fact, the music industry stopped trusting its customers years ago. The only way to end this particular arms race is to rebuild trust between the two sides, and that’s what I see as being the key job for the Digital Rights Agency.